SEASONAL PREDICTION OF CLIMATE EXTREMES FOR THE PACIFIC: TROPICAL CYCLONES AND EXTREME OCEAN TEMPERATURES

Climate change and climate extremes have a major impact on Australia and Pacific Island countries. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures. As a practical response to climate change, through the Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation planning Program (PACCSAP), enhanced web-based information tools to provide seasonal forecasts for climatic extremes in the Western Pacific have been developed. Using the dynamical seasonal prediction model POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia), we aim to improve accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity and extreme sea surface temperatures for the Western Pacific. Since the PACCSAP has commenced, encouraging scientific and technological results have been obtained, particularly in the development of web-based information tools to provide climatic extremes forecasts in the Pacific and the Australian regions. Improvements to a statistical model for seasonal tropical cyclone prediction in the Australian region have been made. Additional functionality was added to the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal, such as enhanced flexibility of spatial and temporal selection. New web-based information tool for sea surface temperature seasonal prediction is also currently under development. Improved knowledge of extreme climatic events, together with the assistance of tailored forecast tools, will help enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of Australia and Pacific Island Countries under climate change.