HINDSIGHT BIAS AND ITS REVERSAL: WHAT WILL TIME REVEAL?

This experimental study explores temporal characteristics of hindsight bias (HB). The relation between temporal placements of outcome-supporting antecedents and outcome probability judgments were examined in 10 forensic accident animations. Sixty-two students in 2 conditions assessed outcome probability before and after driver's error was apparent from an animation. Hindsight bias only occurred in judgments after driver's error was apparent, however reversed HB resulted in prior time-points. In certain cases, both effects were present within an animation. Presence of hindsight bias and its reversal in different time-points of a single unfolding event suggests that these effects might be results of the same sense making process. Possible explanations are discussed in framework of causal model theory and counterfactual thinking.