Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change

被引：126
作者：
Stern, David I. [1 ]
Kaufmann, Robert K. [2 ]
机构：
[1] Australian Natl Univ, Crawford Sch Publ Policy, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
[2] Boston Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA
来源：
CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2014年 / 122卷 / 1-2期
关键词：
GRANGER CAUSALITY; CARBON-DIOXIDE; VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS; ATMOSPHERIC CO2; TEMPERATURE; ATTRIBUTION; EMISSIONS; SERIES; INVESTIGATE; MODELS;
D O I：
10.1007/s10584-013-1007-x
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
We test for causality between radiative forcing and temperature using multivariate time series models and Granger causality tests that are robust to the non-stationary (trending) nature of global climate data. We find that both natural and anthropogenic forcings cause temperature change and also that temperature causes greenhouse gas concentration changes. Although the effects of greenhouse gases and volcanic forcing are robust across model specifications, we cannot detect any effect of black carbon on temperature, the effect of changes in solar irradiance is weak, and the effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be only around half that usually attributed to them.
引用
收藏
页码：257 / 269
页数：13
相关论文
共 49 条
  • [1] [Anonymous], ADV STAT METHODS ANA
  • [2] Testing for linear Granger causality from natural/anthropogenic forcings to global temperature anomalies
    Attanasio, Alessandro
    [J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 2012, 110 (1-2) : 281 - 289
  • [3] A contribution to attribution of recent global warming by out-of-sample Granger causality analysis
    Attanasio, Alessandro
    Pasini, Antonello
    Triacca, Umberto
    [J]. ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2012, 13 (01): : 67 - 72
  • [4] Thermal growing season and timing of biospheric carbon uptake across the Northern Hemisphere
    Barichivich, J.
    Briffa, K. R.
    Osborn, T. J.
    Melvin, T. M.
    Caesar, J.
    [J]. GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, 2012, 26
  • [5] Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming
    Beenstock, M.
    Reingewertz, Y.
    Paldor, N.
    [J]. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS, 2012, 3 (02) : 173 - 188
  • [6] Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment
    Bond, T. C.
    Doherty, S. J.
    Fahey, D. W.
    Forster, P. M.
    Berntsen, T.
    DeAngelo, B. J.
    Flanner, M. G.
    Ghan, S.
    Kaercher, B.
    Koch, D.
    Kinne, S.
    Kondo, Y.
    Quinn, P. K.
    Sarofim, M. C.
    Schultz, M. G.
    Schulz, M.
    Venkataraman, C.
    Zhang, H.
    Zhang, S.
    Bellouin, N.
    Guttikunda, S. K.
    Hopke, P. K.
    Jacobson, M. Z.
    Kaiser, J. W.
    Klimont, Z.
    Lohmann, U.
    Schwarz, J. P.
    Shindell, D.
    Storelvmo, T.
    Warren, S. G.
    Zender, C. S.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2013, 118 (11) : 5380 - 5552
  • [7] History of sulfate aerosol radiative forcings
    Boucher, O
    Pham, M
    [J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2002, 29 (09) : 22 - 23
  • [8] Canty T, 2012, ATMOS CHEM PHYS DISC, V12, P23829
  • [9] Compo GP, 2010, J CLIMATOL, V23, P1957
  • [10] Forster P, 2007, AR4 CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS, P129
12345