CAN LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS RECONCILE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, THE BIOECONOMY AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION IN THE EU?

Lignocellulosic Biomass (LB) is considered a crucial feedstock for sustainable biomass supply to the bioeconomy, reducing competition with food production compared to traditional crops. However, large-scale development of LB to fulfill greenhouse gas mitigation targets would require not only land previously not used for agriculture but also existing agricultural land. This study aims to evaluate agricultural market impacts and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation effects in different land use scenarios for LB to achieve a 75% GHG reduction scenario for the EU (4.1EJ of LB biomass demand) until 2050. We simulated, in a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model ESIM, three scenarios for LB cultivation: only cropland use ("cropland"), mix of cropland and pasture ("cropland+pasture"), and only marginal land ("marginal"). Our results show that all land use scenarios for LB show positive GHG mitigation effects (40-75% compared to the fossil heat emission), but lead to increasing average agricultural commodity prices by 3-10% in the EU and 3.5-1.3% in the rest of the world. Employing pasture for LB reduces food price increases and results in lower GHG mitigation levels compared to the exclusive use of cropland. The use of marginal land for LB exhibits the lowest impacts on food security among all scenarios, but also under this scenario, increasing land prices affect food prices.