Empirical evaluation of observation scale effects in community time series

Natural communities are highly complex and dynamic over time, with populations structured by numerous abiotic and biotic forces acting through direct and indirect pathways. Multispecies Autoregressive (MAR) modeling can be used to partition effects of variables that are interrelated and temporally autocorrelated in time series from natural systems. Here we address two main questions in applying MAR models to community time series. First, what is the effect of observation scale on interpretation of community dynamics? We used a 10-year weekly planktonic time series from Lake Washington to construct multiple "biweekly" and "monthly" data sets, and compared resulting community interaction models. Direct abiotic effects and intraspecific autocorrelation were apparent using all data sets. Biotic interactions were more apparent using biweekly and monthly data, indicating that time lags longer than one week were necessary to detect numerical response to interspecific interactions. Second, we examined effects of dropping the winter months from our analyses to simulate the common practice of sampling only during the "growing season" in long-term ecological studies. We found that biotic interactions remained similarly characterized in models using only non-winter months, but that the importance of seasonal physical factors nearly disappeared in non-winter models. Exclusion of winter data in sampling designs may therefore allow us to characterize biotic interactions, although it may not help us understand populations' relationships to seasonal abiotic variables. The models supported many previous findings from experimental and qualitative investigations of Lake Washington community interactions, implying that MARs provided plausible characterizations of community dynamics, but some previously unconsidered relationships did emerge, such as the importance of cryptomonads and picoplankton for zooplankton growth. We conclude that explicit consideration of time lags in biotic response is necessary to understand relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors, and that sampling regime can therefore strongly influence our interpretations of community dynamics.