Mars Microprobe entry-to-impact analysis

The Mars Microprobe mission will provide the first opportunity for subsurface measurements, including water detection, near the Mars south pole. Performance of the Microprobe aeroshell design is evaluated through development and application of a six-degree-of-freedom flight dynamics simulation. Numerous mission uncertainties are quantified, and a Monte Carlo analysis is performed to statistically assess mission performance. Results from this Monte Carlo flight dynamics simulation demonstrate that the 3-sigma Microprobe impact footprint extends 180 x 20 km, and the aerothermodynamic and deceleration environments are well within design specifications. The probability of a successful impact event is assessed based on penetration data obtained through a ground-test program. The surface elevation, ground slope, and soil hardness of the Microprobe impact site are shown to be primary drivers on mission success.