Mainland China's transition and its impact on Taiwan's future

Li underscores the importance of understanding the dynamics behind the political and economical transition in mainland China when formulating a policy for Taiwan's security. Not only have economic reforms undermined the ideological foundations of the political system on the mainland, but the process of political and fiscal decentralization has significantly eroded the power of the central government as well. He argues that these trends, combined with growing domestic dissatisfaction and dissent, will lead to political disarray and may bring about the collapse of the Communist Party. The result is both opportunity and danger for Taiwan. A cross-straits war, he argues, might be an excellent opportunity for the central regime to regain slipping national authority over the provinces through military force. Li points out that a declaration of Taiwanese independence could provide an occasion for Beijing to justify an attack by appealing to Chinese nationalism and material selfishness. Li's policy suggestion is to take advantage of the mainland's transition through ''constructive involvement.'' This strategy would entail the mainland governments at any level, and avoiding sensitive political issues. In his remarks, Li suggests that the final solution may be to form alliances with coastal provinces such as Fujian. This would act as a deterrent against Beijing's risking a cross-straits war that would also risk war with the coastal provinces. Pointing to China's market reforms and the high degree of economic complementarity between Taiwan and the mainland, Li suggests that another important aspect of constructive involvement is establishing strong economic ties with the mainland. Not only will this benefit Taiwanese businesses, but Li argues that it will also provide a foundation from which subsequent political influence can grow.