Improvement of 1-month lead predictability of the wintertime AO using a realistically varying solar constant for a CGCM

The impact of solar constant variation on the predictability of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is investigated in terms of 1month lead hindcast data obtained from a coupled general circulation model. The 1month lead hindcasts produced from a realistic initial solar constant experiment (Solar Run, SR) and from a climatological solar constant experiment (Control run, CR) are comparatively analysed. The 1month lead hindcasts were initiated from mid-November, mid-December and mid-January of each year for the period 1980-2009. The hindcast of the SR showed better skill than that of the CR in terms of forecasting not only the AO index but also the atmospheric circulation pattern related with the AO. This shows that the prescription of realistic solar constant as the initial condition is necessary for improved AO prediction. Copyright (c) 2013 Royal Meteorological Society