Regret theory-based route choices and traffic equilibria

被引:147
|
作者
Chorus, Caspar G. [1 ]
机构
[1] Delft Univ Technol, Sect Transport & Logist, NL-2628 BX Delft, Netherlands
来源
TRANSPORTMETRICA | 2012年 / 8卷 / 04期
关键词
regret theory; expected utility theory; regret aversion; risk aversion; traffic equilibria; DECISION-MAKING; PROSPECT-THEORY; UTILITY-THEORY; RISK-AVERSION; INFORMATION; TRAVEL; MODEL; DRIVERS;
D O I
10.1080/18128602.2010.498391
中图分类号
U [交通运输];
学科分类号
08 ; 0823 ;
摘要
This article studies route choices and traffic equilibria when travel times are risky, and travellers are risk averse and regret averse. It is shown how regret theory, being one of the most popular contenders of expected utility theory throughout the social sciences, can be applied to model risky route choices by means of an expected modified utility function. Subsequently this function is used to study numerically how risk aversion and regret aversion jointly determine equilibrium outcomes in a simple binary route choice situation. It is found that increasing levels of regret aversion lead to equilibrium shifts towards routes whose mean travel time is low, routes that are less risky and especially routes whose worst-case travel time is low compared to that of the competing route. Furthermore, risk aversion and regret aversion are found to reinforce each other's impact on equilibrium towards a situation where safer routes are preferred over riskier (but faster) ones.
引用
收藏
页码:291 / 305
页数:15
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