Work-site musculoskeletal pain risk estimates by trained observers - a prospective cohort study

Work-related musculoskeletal pain (MSP) risk assessments by trained observers are often used in ergonomic practice; however, the validity may be questionable. We investigated the predictive value of work-site MSP risk estimates in a prospective cohort study of 1745 workers. Trained observers estimated the risk of MSP (neck, shoulder or low-back pain) using a three-point scale (high, moderate and low risk) after observing a video of randomly selected workers representing a task group. Associations of the estimated risk of pain and reported pain during a three-year follow-up were assessed using logistic regression. Estimated risk of neck and shoulder pain did (odds ratio, OR: 1.45 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.01-2.08); 1.64 (95% CI: 1.05-2.55)), however, estimated risk of low-back pain did not significantly predict pain (OR: 1.27 (95% CI: 0.91-1.79)). The results show that observers were able to estimate the risk of shoulder and neck pain, whereas they found it difficult to estimate the risk of low-back pain.