The use of Bayesian priors in Ecology: The good, the bad and the not great

被引:70
作者
Banner, Katharine M. [1 ]
Irvine, Kathryn M. [2 ]
Rodhouse, Thomas J. [3 ]
机构
[1] Montana State Univ, Dept Math Sci, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA
[2] US Geol Survey, Northern Rocky Mt Sci Ctr, Bozeman, MT USA
[3] Oregon State Univ Cascades, Natl Pk Serv, Bend, OR USA
来源
METHODS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION | 2020年 / 11卷 / 08期
关键词
Bayesian hierarchical models; good statistical practice; sensitivity analysis; subjective priors; POPULATION ECOLOGY; MODEL SELECTION; INFERENCE; GUIDE; CONSERVATION;
D O I
10.1111/2041-210X.13407
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
1. Bayesian data analysis (BDA) is a powerful tool for making inference from ecological data, but its full potential has yet to be realized. Despite a generally positive trajectory in research surrounding model development and assessment, far too little attention has been given to prior specification. 2. Default priors, a sub-class of non-informative prior distributions that are often chosen without critical thought or evaluation, are commonly used in practice. We believe the fear of being too 'subjective' has prevented many researchers from usinganyprior information in their analyses despite the fact that defending prior choice (informative or not) promotes good statistical practice. 3. In this commentary, we provide an overview of how BDA is currently being used in a random sample of articles, discuss implications for inference if current bad practices continue, and highlight sub-fields where knowledge about the system has improved inference and promoted good statistical practices through the careful and justified use of informative priors. 4. We hope to inspire a renewed discussion about the use of Bayesian priors in Ecology with particular attention paid to specification and justification. We also emphasize thatallpriors are the result of a subjective choice, and should be discussed in that way.
引用
收藏
页码:882 / 889
页数:8
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