The Meteorological Disasters Risk Analysis and Risk Management in Large Scale Activities

On the basis of risk analysis, the risk control and risk sustainability should be assessed for the requirement of risk management on the meteorological disaster so that it can keep safeties during large-scale activities. Thus, the AHP model combined with the method of experts score is introduced in the assessment of risk control and risk sustainability, and then the risk index can be corrected accordingly to reflect the real risk status, and be used for risk ranking and sorting. Our research takes the case study of meteorological disasters risk assessment during the celebration days on the victory of anti-Japanese war. The high impact weathers of rainfall, haze, thunderstorm, fog and high temperature are recognized as the risk sources. After the risk analysis as well as the assessment on risk control and risk sustainability, these conclusions can be drawn as the followings. The possibility of rainfall is relatively high during the period of celebration days, additional to weak risk control and sustainability to rainfall, the risk induced by precipitation could be high during that days. Though the possibility of haze can be high, the good risk control and sustainability to it can reduce its risk correspondently, and the haze risk will be low. The number of lightning dangerous events will be relatively lower than the average, however, it is noticeable that the ChangAnJie road is a relative high lightning risk region. The possibility of fog will be relative high on the northern Yangqing and the southern Daxing district which lead to the moderate risk induced by fog. The low possibility of hot days and its good risk control and sustainability makes the low risk of high temperature