Agroforestry systems in a changing climate - challenges in projecting future performance

被引：96

作者：

Luedeling, Eike ^{[1
]}

Kindt, Roeland ^{[1
]}

Huth, Neil I. ^{[2
]}

Koenig, Konstantin ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] World Agroforestry Ctr ICRAF, Nairobi, Kenya

[2] CSIRO Ecosyst Sci, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia

[3] World Agroforestry Ctr ICRAF, BR-66095100 Belem, Para, Brazil

来源：

CURRENT OPINION IN ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY | 2014年 / 6卷

关键词：

SPECIES DISTRIBUTION; MAIZE PRODUCTION; CHANGE IMPACTS; MODEL; DISTRIBUTIONS; PRODUCTIVITY; AGRICULTURE; MANAGEMENT; FRAMEWORK; CONSENSUS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.cosust.2013.07.013

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Agroforestry systems are complex assemblages of ecosystem components, each of which responds to climate. Whereas climate change impacts on crops grown in monocultures can reasonably well be projected with process-based crop models, robust models for complex agroforestry systems are not available. Yet impact projections are needed because of the long planning horizons required for adequate management of tree-based ecosystems. This article explores available options for projecting climate change impacts on agroforestry systems, including the development of process-based models, species distribution modeling, climate analogue analysis and field testing in climate analogue locations. Challenges and opportunities of each approach are discussed.

引用

页码：1 / 7

页数：7

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