Historical and future changes of frozen ground in the upper Yellow River Basin

Frozen ground degradation resulting from climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau has aroused wide concern in recent years. In this study, the maximum thickness of seasonally frozen ground (MTSFG) is estimated by the Stefan equation, which is validated using long-term frozen depth observations. The permafrost distribution is estimated by the temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) model, which is validated using borehole observations. The two models are applied to the upper Yellow River Basin (UYRB) for analyzing the spatio-temporal changes in frozen ground. The simulated results show that the areal mean MTSFG in the UYRB decreased by 3.47 cm/10 a during 1965-2014, and that approximately 23% of the permafrost in the UYRB degraded to seasonally frozen ground during the past 50 years. Using the climate data simulated by 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, the areal mean MTSFG is projected to decrease by 1.69 to 3.07 cm/10 a during 2015-2050, and approximately 40% of the permafrost in 1991-2010 is projected to degrade into seasonally frozen ground in 2031-2050. This study provides a framework to estimate the long-term changes in frozen ground based on a combination of multi-source observations at the basin scale, and this framework can be applied to other areas of the Tibetan Plateau. The estimates of frozen ground changes could provide a scientific basis for water resource management and ecological protection under the projected future climate changes in headwater regions on the Tibetan Plateau.