Climatic regime shifts and decadal-scale variability in calanoid copepod populations off southern California

Decadal-scale climatic regimes and the shifts between them have important impacts on marine ecosystems. Climatic regime shifts have been observed or hypothesized in the North Pacific basin in 1976-77 and 1989. This paper examines long-term (1951-99) trends in calanoid copepod populations off southern California, and the evidence for responses to regime shifts. Most of the species of calanoid copepod that were analysed underwent one or more step changes during the 49 years covered by the study. All but one of these changes occurred in five periods: the late 1950s, late 1960s, mid-1970s, early 1980s and around 1990. The late 1960s changes are considered to be artifacts of an increase in sampling depth. Strong El Nino conditions affected California waters during the late 1950s and early 1980s. The step changes of the mid-1970s and late 1980s to early 1990s may have been responses to regime shifts or other climatic events. 28% of the species and subspecies responded to the 1976-77 event, all increasing in abundance. Another 28% of the copepod categories underwent step changes around 1990, most decreasing. Evidence for regime shifts in the hydrographic variables that were examined is mixed. The 10-m temperature increased in the mid-1970s. Abrupt changes in variables around 1990 were short-lived. However, the population responses around 1990 and to the El Ninos of the late 1950s and early 1980s indicate that some species of calanoid copepods may respond on longer time scales to environmental conditions that persist only a few years.