ANALYSIS OF LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGE AND ITS PREDICTION IN THE MAMBASA SECTOR, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

Current information on land use/land cover change and its future evolution is required to support land management planning and policymaking in most developing countries experiencing deforestation and land degradation. Here, we explore the land use/land cover change occurring between 1987 and 2019 in the Mambasa sector, located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and used the cellular automata model to predict the 2035 land use/land cover. The results have shown that during the last 32 years, dense forest has lost approximately 5121.54 ha, while secondary forest, fallow land and fields and, built-up area have gained 1786.23 ha, 3140.46 ha and 194.85 ha respectively. The predicted land use/land cover for the year 2035 revealed that dense and secondary forests will continue to experience a decrease of 3.85% and 13.65% respectively, while built-up area and fallow land and fields will experience an increase of 6.9% and 34.25% respectively. However, the study revealed that the unsustainable agriculture system combined with wood energy and artisanal logging have led to land use/land cover change in Mambasa. To reduce deforestation in the region, it would be necessary to improve agricultural production system, diversify the income and provide others timber product sources.