Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids

Integration of solar energy into the electricity network is becoming essential because of its continually increasing growth in usage. An efficient use of the fluctuating energy output of photovoltaic (PV) systems requires reliable forecast information. In fact, this integration can offer a better quality of service if the solar irradiance variation can be predicted with great accuracy. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods used to forecast solar irradiance in order to facilitate selection of the appropriate forecast method according to needs. The study starts with a presentation of statistical approaches and techniques based on cloud images. Next numerical weather prediction or NWP models are detailed before discussing hybrid models. Finally, we give indications for future solar irradiance forecasting approaches dedicated to the management of small-scale insular grids. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.