Thar she blows: Can bubbles be rekindled with experienced subjects?

被引:85
作者
Hussam, Reshmaan N. [1 ]
Porter, David [2 ]
Smith, Vernon L. [2 ]
机构
[1] MIT, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
[2] Chapman Univ, Econ Sci Inst, Orange, CA 92866 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1257/aer.98.3.924
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and "error" elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: "yes." We impose a large increase in liquidity and dividend uncertainty to shock the environment of experienced subjects who have converged to equilibrium, and this treatment rekindles a bubble. However, in replications of that same challenging environment across three experience levels, we discover that the environment yields a rare residual tendency to bubble even in the third experience session. Therefore, a caveat must be placed on the effect of twice-experienced subjects in asset markets: in order for price bubbles to be extinguished, the environment in which the participants engage in exchange must be stationary and bounded by a range of parameters. Experience, including possible "error" elimination, is not robust to major new environment changes in determining the characteristics of a price bubble.
引用
收藏
页码:924 / 937
页数:14
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