Effects of rapid urban land expansion on the spatial direction of residential land prices: Evidence from Wuhan, China

During rapid urbanization, trends for urban land prices show continuous growth. Identifying directional land prices gradients is important to guide land management effectively. This study seeks to grasp the spatial direction of residential land price variations influenced by rapid urban land expansion. After analyzing the conceptual framework for urban land expansion and spatial direction of residential land price variations, the spatial interaction effect was explained. Then, geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis was conducted for a study site in Wuhan, central China, using datasets for residential land prices in 2001, 2007, and 2014. Based on the relationships between residential land expansion and in land price variations, their intermediate variables were selected to establish an evaluation system. GWR analysis provided the spatial distributions of estimated coefficients for three representative location determinants (the distance to the nearest center business district, lake, and arterial road). The results suggest that residential land prices are characterized by obvious spatial direction in residential land expansion. The spatial distribution of residential land prices is reshaped with the formation of an urban (sub-)center, showing a centrifugal development model as a whole. The premium for lakeside property gradually increased as well, which resulted in higher marginal values in prosperous districts, while large lake accessibility had a heterogeneous impact on residential land prices. Proximity to arterial roads had a more obvious impact on land premium in the suburbs than in the central district. This study finally discussed the trends of local variation for spatial direction of residential land prices and analyzed the risks of residential land expansion in the study area.