Integrating data gap filling techniques: A case study predicting TEFs for neurotoxicity TEQs to facilitate the hazard assessment of polychlorinated biphenyls

The application of toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) or toxic units to estimate toxic potencies for mixtures of chemicals which contribute to a biological effect through a common mechanism is one approach for filling data gaps. Toxic Equivalents (TEQ) have been used to express the toxicity of dioxin-like compounds (i.e., dioxins, furans, and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)) in terms of the most toxic form of dioxin: 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (2,3,7,8-TCDD). This study sought to integrate two data gap filling techniques, quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) and TEFs, to predict neurotoxicity TEQs for PCBs. Simon et al. (2007) previously derived neurotoxic equivalent (NEQ) values for a dataset of 87 PCB congeners, of which 83 congeners had experimental data. These data were taken from a set of four different studies measuring different effects related to neurotoxicity, each of which tested overlapping subsets of the 83 PCB congeners. The goals of the current study were to: (i) evaluate an alternative neurotoxic equivalent factor (NEF) derivations from an expanded dataset, relative to those derived by Simon et al. and (ii) develop QSAR models to provide NEF estimates for the large number of untested PCB congeners. The models used multiple linear regression, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbor and random forest algorithms within a 5-fold cross validation scheme and position-specific chlorine substitution patterns on the biphenyl scaffold as descriptors. Alternative NEF values were derived but the resulting QSAR models had relatively low predictivity (RMSE similar to 0.24). This was mostly driven by the large uncertainties in the underlying data and NEF values. The derived NEFs and the QSAR predicted NEFs to fill data gaps should be applied with caution.