Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy

被引:520
作者
Dormann, Carsten F. [1 ,2 ]
Schymanski, Stanislaus J. [3 ,4 ]
Cabral, Juliano [5 ]
Chuine, Isabelle [6 ]
Graham, Catherine [7 ]
Hartig, Florian [8 ]
Kearney, Michael [9 ]
Morin, Xavier [10 ]
Roemermann, Christine [11 ,12 ]
Schroeder, Boris [13 ,14 ]
Singer, Alexander [7 ]
机构
[1] Univ Freiburg, Fac Forest & Environm Sci, D-79106 Freiburg, Germany
[2] UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Computat Landscape Ecol, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany
[3] Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07745 Jena, Germany
[4] Swiss Fed Inst Technol Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
[5] Free Floater Grp Biodivers Macroecol & Conservat, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany
[6] CNRS, Ctr Ecol Fonct & Evolut, Equipe BIOFLUX, F-34293 Montpellier 05, France
[7] SUNY Stony Brook, Dept Ecol & Evolut, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA
[8] UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany
[9] Univ Melbourne, Dept Zool, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia
[10] ETH, Inst Terr Okosyst, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
[11] Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Phys Geog, D-60438 Frankfurt, Germany
[12] Univ Regensburg, Fac Biol & Preclin Med, D-93040 Regensburg, Germany
[13] Univ Potsdam, Inst Geoecol, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany
[14] Tech Univ Munich, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany
关键词
Hypothesis generation; mechanistic model; parameterization; process-based model; species distribution model; SDM; uncertainty; validation; CLIMATE-CHANGE; PREDICTION UNCERTAINTY; BAYESIAN CALIBRATION; DATA ASSIMILATION; FOREST MODEL; DYNAMICS; RANGE; NICHE; EQUIFINALITY; POPULATIONS;
D O I
10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02659.x
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
Within the field of species distribution modelling an apparent dichotomy exists between process-based and correlative approaches, where the processes are explicit in the former and implicit in the latter. However, these intuitive distinctions can become blurred when comparing species distribution modelling approaches in more detail. In this review article, we contrast the extremes of the correlativeprocess spectrum of species distribution models with respect to core assumptions, model building and selection strategies, validation, uncertainties, common errors and the questions they are most suited to answer. The extremes of such approaches differ clearly in many aspects, such as model building approaches, parameter estimation strategies and transferability. However, they also share strengths and weaknesses. We show that claims of one approach being intrinsically superior to the other are misguided and that they ignore the processcorrelation continuum as well as the domains of questions that each approach is addressing. Nonetheless, the application of process-based approaches to species distribution modelling lags far behind more correlative (process-implicit) methods and more research is required to explore their potential benefits. Critical issues for the employment of species distribution modelling approaches are given, together with a guideline for appropriate usage. We close with challenges for future development of process-explicit species distribution models and how they may complement current approaches to study species distributions.
引用
收藏
页码:2119 / 2131
页数:13
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