Study on Estimating Failure Probability of Earth-rock Dams

Dam safety based on risk analysis methodologies demands risk quantification of the earth-rock dam project, and estimation on the failure probability of earth-rock dams is a major concern in the dam safety management. Due to numerous uncertainties, structures of the reservoir are involved leading to risks that may finally cause dam failure. The risk identification was firstly investigated according to the actual project. Subsequently, method of expertise was presented to estimate odds of the presence of each link in dam failure modes quantitatively. The reservoir composed of several dams in South China was taken as a case. The failure probabilities of each dam were obtained and results showed that risk of No.5 dam was relatively higher in all the dams. The research is of great significance to the dam safety management.