Fuzzy multiphase Markov chains to handle uncertainties in safety systems performance assessment

被引：34
作者：
Mechri, W. [1 ]
Simon, C. [2 ,3 ]
Bicking, F. [2 ,3 ]
Ben Othman, K. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Ecole Natl Ingenieurs Tunis, LARA Tunis, Tunis 1002, Tunisia
[2] Univ Lorraine, Ctr Rech Automat Nancy, UMR 7039, F-54506 Vandoeuvre Les Nancy, France
[3] CNRS, Ctr Rech Automat Nancy, UMR 7039, F-54506 Vandoeuvre Les Nancy, France
来源：
JOURNAL OF LOSS PREVENTION IN THE PROCESS INDUSTRIES | 2013年 / 26卷 / 04期
关键词：
Safety instrumented systems; Safety Integrity Level; Multiphase Markov chains; Fuzzy probability; Imprecision; Uncertainty; COMMON-CAUSE FAILURES; INTEGRITY LEVELS; RELIABILITY;
D O I：
10.1016/j.jlp.2012.12.002
中图分类号：
TQ [化学工业];
学科分类号：
0817 ;
摘要：
In this article, we address the problem of imprecision in assessing the performance of safety instrumented systems (SIS) using fuzzy multiphase Markov chains. The elementary probabilities usually considered in Markov chains are replaced by fuzzy numbers. It allows experts to express their uncertainty concerning the basic parameters of systems and to evaluate the impact of this uncertainty on the SIS performance. We show how the imprecision induces significant changes on the Safety Integrity Level of the SIS. The proposed method ensures the relevance of the results. This is validated by a comparison with the results of an enhanced Markov Analysis. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：594 / 604
页数：11
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