A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011

被引：16

作者：

Berge, Travis J. ^{[1
]}

Jorda, Oscar ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, Kansas City, KS USA

[2] Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA USA

[3] Univ Calif Davis, Davis, CA 95616 USA

来源：

SERIES-JOURNAL OF THE SPANISH ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION | 2013年 / 4卷 / 01期

关键词：

Business cycle; Correct classification frontier; Area under the curve; INFORMATION-THEORY; FINANCIAL CRISES; CREDIT BOOMS; BUSINESS; CYCLES;

D O I：

10.1007/s13209-012-0095-6

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others-this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We also use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. We conclude by evaluating candidate leading indicators and hence construct recession probability forecasts up to 12 months in the future.

引用

页码：1 / 34

页数：34