Storm surges: perspectives and options

被引:76
作者
von Storch, Hans [1 ,2 ]
Woth, Katja [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Hamburg, Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
[2] GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Inst Coastal Res, D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany
关键词
Storm surge; North Sea; Storms; Localization; Scenario; Climate change;
D O I
10.1007/s11625-008-0044-2
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
This review paper attempts to summarize the scattered and fragmented knowledge about past and possible future changing storm-surge statistics using the particularly well-studied case of the North Sea as an example. For this region, a complete and robust analysis methodology has been developed in recent years. This methodology is based on dynamical and statistical models. Using the concept of dynamical downscaling, development during recent decades, when sufficiently good and homogeneous weather data exist, has been "reconstructed,'' and scenarios of possible future change are described. "Localization'' allows estimation of changes at specific sites, e. g., harbors. As local water-level statistics depend not only on climate variations but also on local modifications of the local bathymetry, new options for adaptation emerge. For the case of Hamburg, an option for such future adaptations is discussed.
引用
收藏
页码:33 / 43
页数:11
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