The AIDS epidemic and economic input impact factors in Chongqing, China, from 2006 to 2012: a spatial-temporal analysis

Objective: To analyse the spatial-temporal clustering of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Chongqing and to explore its association with the economic indices of AIDS prevention and treatment. Methods: Data on the HIV/AIDS epidemic and economic indices of AIDS prevention and treatment were obtained from the annual reports of the Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control for 2006-2012. Spatial clustering analysis, temporal-spatial clustering analysis, and spatial regression were used to conduct statistical analysis. Results: The annual average new HIV infection rate, incidence rate for new AIDS cases, and rate of people living with HIV in Chongqing were 5.97, 2.42 and 28.12 per 100 000, respectively, for 2006-2012. The HIV/AIDS epidemic showed a non-random spatial distribution (Moran's I >= 0.310; p<0.05). The epidemic hotspots were distributed in the 15 mid-western counties. The most likely clusters were primarily located in the central region and southwest of Chongqing and occurred in 2010-2012. The regression coefficients of the total amount of special funds allocated to AIDS and to the public awareness unit for the numbers of new HIV cases, new AIDS cases, and people living with HIV were 0.775, 0.976 and 0.816, and -0.188, -0.259 and -0.215 (p<0.002), respectively. Conclusions: The Chongqing HIV/AIDS epidemic showed temporal-spatial clustering and was mainly clustered in the mid-western and south-western counties, showing an upward trend over time. The amount of special funds dedicated to AIDS and to the public awareness unit showed positive and negative relationships with HIV/AIDS spatial clustering, respectively.