Morphotectonic and geodetic evidence for a constant slip-rate over the last 45 kyr along the Tabriz fault (Iran)

Iran is an active continental domain accommodating the convergence between the Arabia and Eurasia plates. In northwestern Iran, deformation between the Central Iranian block and the Caucasus domain is mainly accommodated by right lateral strike-slip on the Tabriz fault. Cities and villages, including the city of Tabriz, have been destroyed by several strong historical earthquakes (M similar to 7). In this study, we compare the slip-rates estimated from geodetic measurements (radar interferometry and UPS) with those determined by dating a geomorphological offset of an alluvial fan along the Tabriz fault. The GPS measurements along two profiles normal to the Tabriz fault suggest a slip-rate of 7.3 +/- 1.3 mm yr(-1). The persistent scatterer radar interferometry analysis of Envisat satellite archives from 2003 to 2010 shows a velocity gradient (6 +/- 3 mm yr(-1)) across the Tabriz fault in agreement with GPS results. Moreover, it reveals that most of the area located south of the Tabriz fault is affected by subsidence, and that some sections of the fault probably act as barriers to fluid migration which may have an impact on its mechanical behaviour. West of Tabriz morphotectonic investigations on an alluvial fan surface show a right-lateral cumulative offset of 320 +/- 40 m Luminescence analyses of the coarse matrix alluvial fan deposits provide an age of 46 +/- 3 ka. This yields a slip-rate comprised between 6.5 and 7.3 mm yr(-1) along this segment. These results suggest that the Late Quaternary slip-rate is in agreement with the present-day slip-rate estimated by geodetic measurements, showing no slip-rate changes during the past 45 000 yr. Short-term variations within the 45 000 yr related to temporal earthquake clustering over few seismic cycles cannot be ruled out, but if they exist, they do not affect the geodetic and the geomorphological estimates. This study is in agreement with previous ones suggesting that long-term slip-rates (i.e. averaged over several tens of seismic cycles) are consistent with geodetic estimated slip-rates (i.e. extrapolated from few years of interseismic observations), and suggests that perturbations of fault slip-rates are related to variations over few seismic cycles.