An integrated assessment model for fine particulate matter in Europe

Exposure to fine particles in the ambient air is recognized as a significant threat to human health. Two pathways contribute to the particle burden in the atmosphere: Fine particles originate from primary emissions, and secondary organic and inorganic particles are formed from the gas phase from the emissions of 'conventional' pollutants such as SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3. Both types of particulate matter can be transported over long distances in the atmosphere. An integrated assessment model for particulate matter developed at IIASA addresses the relative importance of the different types of particulates, distinguishing primary and secondary particles and two size fractions. The model projects these emissions into the future and seeks cost-effective strategies for reducing health risks to population. The model integrates the control of primary emissions of fine particles with strategies to reduce the precursor emissions for the secondary aerosols. Preliminary results addressing the PM2.5 fraction of both primary and secondary particulate matter indicate that in Europe the exposure to particulates will be significantly reduced as a side effect of the emission controls for conventional air pollutants (SO2, NOx NH3).