Longitudinal association between social anxiety disorder and incident alcohol use disorder: results from two national samples of US adults

This study assessed the association between subclinical social fears and a 12-month diagnosis of Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD) at baseline and the risk of incident Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) at follow-up, compared to those without subclinical social fears and a 12-month diagnosis of SAD. We performed an individual participant meta-analysis based on data from two national longitudinal surveys. Wave 1 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) was conducted in 2001-2002 in a sample of 43,093 adults and Wave 2 was conducted in 2004-2005 in 34,653 of the original respondents. Wave 1 of the National Comorbidity Survey was conducted in 1990-1992 in a sample of 8098 respondents and Wave 2 was conducted in 2001-2002 in 5001 of the original respondents. Binary logistic regression analyses were performed independently in each study and then the effect estimates were combined using random-effects meta-analysis. Neither subclinical social fears nor 12-month SAD at baseline were associated with incident AUD at follow-up. These findings conflict with reports of previous studies that a diagnosis of SAD is a risk factor for AUD in adults, and suggest that subclinical social fears are not associated with differential risk of incident AUD.