Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM

被引：31

作者：

Calvin, Katherine ^{[1
]}

Wise, Marshall ^{[1
]}

Clarke, Leon ^{[1
]}

Edmonds, Jae ^{[1
]}

Kyle, Page ^{[1
]}

Luckow, Patrick ^{[2
]}

Thomson, Allison ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Joint Global Change Res Inst PNNL, College Pk, MD 20740 USA

[2] Synapse Energy, Boston, MA USA

来源：

CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2013年 / 117卷 / 03期

关键词：

CARBON-DIOXIDE; LAND-USE; GREENHOUSE GASES; DAMAGE COSTS; SCENARIOS; ENERGY; WORLD; CROPS;

D O I：

10.1007/s10584-012-0650-y

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.

引用

页码：545 / 560

页数：16