Threat spots and environmental determinants of red-listed plant, butterfly and bird species in boreal agricultural environments

The aims of this study were (1) to examine the geographic distribution of red-listed species of agricultural environments and identify their national threat spots (areas with high diversity of threatened species) in Finland and (2) to determine the main environmental variables related to the richness and occurrence patterns of red-listed species. Atlas data of 21 plant, 17 butterfly and 11 bird species recorded using 10 km grid squares were employed in the study. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were constructed separately for species richness and occurrence of individual species of the three species groups using climate and land cover predictor variables. The predictive accuracy of models, as measured using correlation between the observed and predicted values and AUC statistics, was generally good. Temperature-related variables were the most important determinants of species richness and occurrence of all three taxa. In addition, land cover variables had a strong effect on the distribution of species. Plants and butterflies were positively related to the cover of grasslands and birds to small-scale agricultural mosaic as well as to arable land. Spatial coincidence of threat spots of plants, butterflies and birds was limited, which emphasizes the importance of considering the potentially contrasting environmental requirements of different taxa in conservation planning. Further, it is obvious that the maintenance of various non-crop habitats and heterogeneous agricultural landscapes has an essential role in the preservation of red-listed species of boreal rural environments.