Early warning signals and the prosecutor's fallacy

被引:93
作者
Boettiger, Carl [1 ]
Hastings, Alan [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif Davis, Ctr Populat Biol, Davis, CA 95616 USA
[2] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
early warning signals; tipping point; alternative stable states; likelihood methods; SLOWING-DOWN; RESILIENCE; THRESHOLDS; ECOSYSTEMS;
D O I
10.1098/rspb.2012.2085
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here, we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces-a statistical error often known as the prosecutor's fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false-positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than those more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.
引用
收藏
页码:4734 / 4739
页数:6
相关论文
共 24 条
  • [1] Ecology -: Globalization, roving bandits, and marine resources
    Berkes, F
    Hughes, TP
    Steneck, RS
    Wilson, JA
    Bellwood, DR
    Crona, B
    Folke, C
    Gunderson, LH
    Leslie, HM
    Norberg, J
    Nyström, M
    Olsson, P
    Österblom, H
    Scheffer, M
    Worm, B
    [J]. SCIENCE, 2006, 311 (5767) : 1557 - 1558
  • [2] Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions
    Boettiger, Carl
    Hastings, Alan
    [J]. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, 2012, 9 (75) : 2527 - 2539
  • [3] May the Best Analyst Win
    Carpenter, Jennifer
    [J]. SCIENCE, 2011, 331 (6018) : 698 - 699
  • [4] Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition
    Carpenter, SR
    Brock, WA
    [J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2006, 9 (03) : 308 - 315
  • [5] Courchamp F, 2008, ALLEE EFFECTS IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION, P1
  • [6] Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse
    Dai, Lei
    Vorselen, Daan
    Korolev, Kirill S.
    Gore, Jeff
    [J]. SCIENCE, 2012, 336 (6085) : 1175 - 1177
  • [7] Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change
    Dakos, Vasilis
    Scheffer, Marten
    van Nes, Egbert H.
    Brovkin, Victor
    Petoukhov, Vladimir
    Held, Hermann
    [J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2008, 105 (38) : 14308 - 14312
  • [8] Slowing Down in Spatially Patterned Ecosystems at the Brink of Collapse
    Dakos, Vasilis
    Kefi, Sonia
    Rietkerk, Max
    van Nes, Egbert H.
    Scheffer, Marten
    [J]. AMERICAN NATURALIST, 2011, 177 (06) : E153 - E166
  • [9] Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking
    Ditlevsen, Peter D.
    Johnsen, Sigfus J.
    [J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2010, 37
  • [10] Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments
    Drake, John M.
    Griffen, Blaine D.
    [J]. NATURE, 2010, 467 (7314) : 456 - 459