Climate-Forced Changes of Bioproductivity of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Belarus

The spatial and temporal particularities of changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) over the territory of Belarus in the current century and their relationship with climate changes has been investigated. An increase in the NDVI is observed on about 84% of the area of Belarus. Statistically significant growth of the NDVI has been recorded at nearly 35% of the studied area (Student's t-test at 95% confidence interval), mainly forests and undeveloped areas. Croplands vegetation index is mainly decreasing. The main factor of croplands bioproductivity interannual variability is the precipitation amount in the vegetation period. This factor determines more than 60% of the cropland NDVI dispersion. The long-term changes in the NDVI are explained by a combination of two factors: the photosynthesis-intensifying action of carbon dioxide and the warming of the air, which suppresses vegetation alongside a practically constant precipitation amount. If the observed climatic trends persist, the cropland bioproductivity in many regions of Belarus by the middle of this century may decrease by more than 20% compared to 2000. The impact of climate change on the bioproductivity of the undeveloped lands of Belarus is insignificant against the background of its growth under the conditions of the increasing content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.