Probability modeling of autonomous Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs)

Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) are advanced weapon systems that can loiter autonomously in a pack over a target area, detect and acquire the targets, and then engage them. Modeling these capabilities in a specific hostile operational setting is necessary for addressing weapons' design and operational issues. In this paper we develop several analytic probability models, which range from a simple regenerative formula to a large-scale continuous-time Markov chain, with the objective to address the aforementioned issues. While these models capture key individual aspects of the weapon such as detection, recognition, memory and survivability, special attention is given to pack related aspects such as simultaneous targeting, multiple kills due to imperfect battle damage assessment, and the effect of attack coordination. From implementing the models we gain some insights on design and operational considerations regarding the employment of a pack of UCAVs in a strike scenario.