The role of Bay of Bengal convection in the onset of the 1998 South China Sea summer monsoon

Assimilated analysis fields from the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment and the outgoing longwave radiation data from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have been employed to describe the large-scale and synoptic features of the subtropical circulation during the Bay of Bengal (BOB; 6degrees-20degreesN, 80degrees-100degreesE) and South China Sea (SCS; 78degrees-20degreesN, 110degrees-120degreesE) monsoon onsets in 1998. The results show that the Asian monsoon onset during May 1998 exhibited a typical eastward development from the BOB region to the SCS domain. The weakening and retreat of the subtropical anticyclone from the SCS were preceded by the intrusion of westerlies and the development of convective activities over the northern part of the SCS (NSCS; 15degrees-20degreesN, 110degrees-120degreesE). As the vertical shear of zonal wind changes in sign, the ridge surface of the subtropical anticyclone tilted northward and the summer pattern was established over the SCS. Based on these observational results, version 4 of the NCAR climate model (CCM3) is used to investigate the physical link between the convection associated with the BOB monsoon vortex and the SCS summer monsoon onset, as well as the mechanism of the evolution of the low-level subtropical anticyclone over the SCS. Introduction of heating over the BOB results in vigorous convection over the BOB, and the BOB monsoon onset, as well as the development of westerlies and vertical ascent over the NSCS region due to an asymmetric Rossby wave response. Together with the low-level moisture advection, convection is induced over the NSCS. It is the condensation heating over the NSCS that causes the overturning of the meridional gradient of temperature over the SCS. Consequently the subtropical anticyclone in the lower troposphere over the SCS weakened gradually. Eventually as convection develops over the entire SCS domain, the subtropical anticyclone moves out of the region.