Incubation Period and Reproduction Number for Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Infections in India

被引：9

作者：

Patrikar, Seema Rajesh ^{[1
]}

Kotwal, Atul ^{[2
]}

Bhatti, Vijay K. ^{[2
]}

Banerjee, Amitav ^{[3
]}

Chatterjee, Kunal ^{[2
]}

Kunte, Renuka ^{[2
]}

Tambe, Murlidhar ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Armed Forces Med Coll, Pune 411040, Maharashtra, India

[2] Armed Forces Med Serv, New Delhi, India

[3] Dr DY Patil Med Coll, Pune, Maharashtra, India

[4] BJ Med Coll, Pune, Maharashtra, India

来源：

ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH | 2020年 / 32卷 / 08期

关键词：

novel corona virus; incubation period; reproduction number; herd immunity; epidemiology;

D O I：

10.1177/1010539520956427

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread from China to other parts of the world. Knowledge of incubation period and reproduction number is important in controlling any epidemic. The distribution of these parameters helps estimate the epidemic size and transmission potential of the disease. We estimated the incubation period and reproduction number of COVID-19 for India utilizing data reported by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, and data in public domain. The mean incubation period seems to be larger at 6.93 (standard deviation = +/- 5.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.11-7.75), and 95th percentile estimate for best fit normal distribution is 17.8 days. Weibull distribution, the best fit for the reproduction number estimated pre lockdown reproduction number as 2.6 (95% CI = 2.34-2.86) and post lockdown reduced to 1.57 (95% CI = 1.3-1.84) implying effectiveness of the epidemic response strategies. The herd immunity is estimated between 36% and 61% for R(0)of 1.57 and 2.6, respectively.

引用

页码：458 / 460

页数：3

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