Looking to the future: Prospective economic voting in 2008 Presidential Elections

被引：13

作者：

Michelitch, Kristin ^{[1
]}

Morales, Marco ^{[1
]}

Owen, Andrew ^{[2
]}

Tucker, Joshua A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] NYU, Dept Polit, New York, NY 10012 USA

[2] Univ British Columbia, Dept Polit, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada

来源：

ELECTORAL STUDIES | 2012年 / 31卷 / 04期

关键词：

Prospective economic voting; Vote choice; 2008 American National Elections; 2008 Ghanaian Presidential Election; Survey methodology; PARTY; PERCEPTIONS; CHOICE; VOTE; PARTISANSHIP; PERFORMANCE; POPULARITY; BEHAVIOR; ISSUES; MEDIA;

D O I：

10.1016/j.electstud.2012.04.002

中图分类号：

D0 [政治学、政治理论];

学科分类号：

0302 ; 030201 ;

摘要：

Despite the economic turmoil of the time, a typical study of vote choice in the 2008 US Presidential Election would (falsely) find little evidence that voters' opinions about the future state of the economy affected their vote choice. We argue that this misleading conclusion results from serious measurement error in the standard prospective economic evaluations survey question. Relying instead on a revised question, included for the first time in the 2008 American National Election Study, we find that most respondents condition their prospective economic evaluations on potential election outcomes, and that these evaluations are an important determinant of vote choice. A replication in a very different political context - the 2008 Ghanaian election - yields similar results. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：838 / 851

页数：14

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[1] ECONOMIC-CONDITIONS, PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY, AND VOTING-BEHAVIOR IN MIDTERM CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS [J].