Understanding Resilience and Sustainable Urban Growth through Land Use Simulation: Case Study of Emerging Metrocity of India

Over the past two decades, migration of people from rural regions to urban centers for workspace has given enormous impetus to urban growth trajectory in India. This process of urbanizing has made hinterland between core urban area and rural fringes more vulnerable to rapid urbanization. Urbanization is an irreversible phenomena and unplanned urbanization has severe effects on human beings and environment causing shortage of basic amenities such as air, land, and water (both surface and sub-surface). Indian cities have been no exception in this context. Technological interventions through building ecologically resilient cities are the need of smart India. Technologies such as remote sensing and GIS has always been appreciated in this regard as they help to monitor urban expansion which cannot be mapped with ease by conventional methods. This research aims to visualize the future scenarios of urban growth simulation using cellular automata (CA) based models. The model was developed with fuzzy AHP integrated CA-Markov model with temporal analysis of land use from 1990 onwards. These models were executed for a rapidly expanding city of Central India. Results of the model were proved to be satisfactory. Integrated model was successful in characterizing effectively the major pockets of urban growth through agents of change. Different exclusion layers were also considered in the analysis to improve modelling capability to predict the ground scenario more realistically. High-density urban sprawl especially along the major highway roads and infill type of expansion within municipal boundary limits is observed. Core urban areas were clustered together to form a monotonous urban patch type giving no scope for other categories such as agriculture, open fields, barren land, etc. to develop. The output from the model insisted to protect different land use types from getting urbanized and to promote sustainable development of these areas. This analysis has provided greater insights to understand the needs of building a combined spatial decision support network through upgradation on microscopic levels of city development. The model predicted the city would consist of majorly impervious layer urbanized by 2022 and immediate need to plan ecological resilient neighborhood and sustainable land use allocation by using visualized land use data.