Human chorionic gonadotrophin concentrations in early pregnancy after in-vitro fertilization

There is increased risk of early pregnancy loss after assisted reproduction. In this study the use of serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) concentrations on day 12 after in-vitro fertilization (IVF) and embryo transfer was evaluated to predict pregnancy outcome. A total of 417 IVF pregnancies were included. Early pregnancy loss was defined as biochemical pregnancies, ectopic pregnancies and first trimester abortions. Vital pregnancies were defined as delivered singletons, multiple pregnancies and second trimester abortions. On the post embryo transfer day 12, the mean HCG concentration of the vital pregnancy group was significantly higher than in early pregnancy loss outcomes (P < 0.00001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the cutoff value of HCG giving maximal sensitivity and specificity in order to discriminate early pregnancy losses from vital pregnancies. A patient with a HCG value higher than the calculated cut-off value (55 IU/l) had a 90% chance of having a vital pregnancy after IVF and embryo transfer. It can be concluded that a discriminatory HCG value on day 12 after IVF and embryo transfer cycles may be useful in predicting pregnancy outcome and may guide clinicians in identifying those pregnancies at risk for adverse outcomes and instituting more intensive surveillance in this population.