A Hot Spot for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus, but Not for Psoriatic Arthritis, Identified by Spatial Analysis Suggests an Interaction Between Ethnicity and Place of Residence

Objective To describe the spatial distribution of incident cases of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) using geographic information systems (GIS). Methods Spatial analyses were carried out on 890 SLE patients and 541 psoriatic arthritis (PsA) patients (controls). Age- and sex-adjusted rates for SLE/PsA for each census tract were calculated using denominator population values from the Canadian census. Spatial variations in relative risk were estimated by modeling risk as the product of a time effect, an age effect, and a spatially autocorrelated risk surface to identify hot spots. Patients within the detected hot spot were compared to those outside the hot spot to identify explanatory factors. Results SLE patients were predominantly female (87.75%) and the incidence rate was highest among those 15-19 years of age (2.4 cases/100,000 person-years). In an SLE hot spot containing 59 patients, 100% of the patients were female and 49.1% (n = 29) were Caucasian, while outside of the hot spot, 86.9% (n = 722) of the patients were female and 68.4% (n = 568) were Caucasian. The proportion of cases of Chinese ethnicity was significantly greater within the hot spot. An interaction was found between Chinese ethnicity and residence within the hot spot, with the risk of SLE to the Chinese population found to be twice the risk to the non-Chinese population. Conclusion GIS was used to map SLE cases and a hot spot was identified after adjustment for age and sex. Ethnicity by itself did not confer an increased risk of SLE, but the interaction of ethnicity with location of residence significantly increased the risk of SLE.