A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events

被引：27

作者：

van Oijen, Marcel ^{[1
]}

Beer, Christian ^{[2
]}

Cramer, Wolfgang ^{[3
]}

Rammig, Anja ^{[4
]}

Reichstein, Markus ^{[2
]}

Rolinski, Susanne ^{[4
]}

Soussana, Jean-Francois ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland

[2] Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07745 Jena, Germany

[3] Aix Marseille Univ, Inst Mediterraneen Biodiversite & Ecol Marine & C, Aix En Provence, France

[4] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany

[5] INRA, Paris, France

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2013年 / 8卷 / 01期

关键词：

carbon cycle; drought; uncertainty; vulnerability;

D O I：

10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015032

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series-modelled or measured-of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions.

引用

页数：7