Application of SD model in Analyzing the Cultivated Land Carrying Capacity: A Case Study in Bijie Prefecture, Guizhou Province, China

This paper aims at analyzing the cultivated land carrying capacity (CLCC) with the method of System Dynamics(SD). Taking Bijie Prefecture, Guizhou Province as the research object, the CLCC SD model of Bijie Prefecture has been developed. On the basis of analysis on the main characteristics of BijieCLCC and synthetical adjustment, three available schemes are chosen from various experimental schemes. They are population controloriented Scheme (Scheme 1), fast economic development-oriented Scheme (Scheme 2), and coordinated development-oriented Scheme (Scheme 3) respectively. Comprehensive evaluation indicates that Scheme 3 is the optimal one, which takes social economic development, population control and cultivated land use into account, and can promote the coordination development of cultivated land, social and economy. This study offers the support of technology and the principle of decision-making for the cultivated land use both in Biejie and other similar regions. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of Conference ESIAT2011 Organization Committee.