Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?

被引：107

作者：

Zhou, WX

Sornette, D ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Earth & Space Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA

[2] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Geophys & Planetary Phys, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA

[3] E China Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China

[4] E China Univ Sci & Technol, State Key Lab Chem React Engn, Shanghai 200237, Peoples R China

[5] Univ Nice, F-06108 Nice 2, France

[6] CNRS, UMR 6622, Phys Mat Condensee Lab, F-06108 Nice 2, France

来源：

PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS | 2006年 / 361卷 / 01期

关键词：

econophysics; real estate; bubble; prediction;

D O I：

10.1016/j.physa.2005.06.098

中图分类号：

O4 [物理学];

学科分类号：

0702 ;

摘要：

Using a methodology developed in previous papers, we analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown at a faster-than-exponential rate which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble. We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast-growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：297 / 308

页数：12

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