Forecasting Environmental Indicators. From the Environmental Kuznets Curve to the Environmental Logistic Curve

The achievement of environmental sustainability has been established as a Millennium Development Goal (MDG), including a wide variety of targets referred to the access of drinking water, the reduction of biodiversity loss or the improvement of lives of slum dwellers. According to these targets, the principles of sustainable development should be integrated into country policies. Furthermore, since the carbon dioxide emissions have increased by more than 46 per cent since year 1990, special attention must be paid to the evolution and prospects of environmental indicators. In this paper we provide some empirical evidence about environmental forecasting, including the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and the Environmental Logistic Curve (ELC). More specifically, environmental logistic curves are estimated through Verhulst's, Pearl's and some other procedures, analyzing the corresponding related assumptions. Ex-post environmental forecasts are computed and their accuracy is analyzed. According to this information, ex-ante forecasts are also provided, allowing the definition of alternative environmental scenarios.