Prediction of macrophyte communities in drought-affected groundwater-fed headwater streams

The results of a 10 year study of groundwater-dominated streams in the chalklands of southern England show that macrophyte communities occupying the headwaters of such streams have a measurable variability in terms of species composition and spatial cover, especially in relation to river flow. This occurs as a result of species adaptation to typically ephemeral flow regimes. Associations have also been established between variations in the vegetation and hydroclimatic parameters at the catchment scale, such as rainfall, percolation and soil moisture conditions. This has led to the derivation of a system whereby the nature of headwater macrophyte communities can be forecast/hindcast, on the basis of parameterized, antecedent flow records, to a current accuracy level of 72% for any of 13 community types and 90% for any of four community groups. It is anticipated that this accuracy rate will improve with (i) an updated community classification, (ii) refinement of the parameterization procedures for flow records, and (iii) the extension of the method from the six study streams currently under scrutiny to a further 18 streams. Greater accuracy of prediction will be constrained by natural variation within the vegetation and the interaction of an array of geomorphological and land-use variables operating at diverse spatial scales. The process used here to establish vegetation-flow relationships could be used in other locations with groundwater-fed streams, providing a useful tool for assessing some of the impacts of bioclimatic changes driven by global warming. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.