Climate change and agricultural trade in central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan

Agriculture in Central Asia faces tremendous challenges due to climate change. International agricultural trade is seen in the literature as a potential adaption to climate change. However, little attention has been paid to the effect of climate change on cereal trade in Central Asia. This study takes Kazakhstan as an example to empirically analyze the effect of climate change on cereal trade by including them as determinants in the gravity model. Our results show that climatic changes in Kazakhstan, measured by precipitation and temperature, could increase the export of wheat and rice and the import of maize, and decrease the import of wheat. Specifically, as a major crop in Kazakhstan, increasing precipitation by 1 millimeter during the major cropping season from May to August, will significantly enhance export of wheat by 0.7% and reduce the import by 1.7%; increasing temperature by 1 degrees C during the same cropping season will significantly increase export of wheat by 21.9% and reduce the import by 49.4%. As an important cereal trade country in the world, the dramatic adjustments of cereal trade patterns resulting from climate change in Kazakhstan might affect global food security.