Spatial Effects in Energy-Efficient Residential HVAC Technology Adoption

If your neighborhood adopts greener, energy-efficient residential heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, will your proenvironmental behavior become contagious, spilling over into adjacent neighborhoods' HVAC adoptions? Objective data on more than 300,000 detailed single-family house sale records in the Greater Chicago area from 1992 to 2004 are aggregated to census block-group neighborhoods to answer that question. Spatial lag regression models show that spatial dependence or "contagion" exists for neighborhood adoption of energy-efficient HVACs. Specifically, if 625 of 726 homes in a demonstration neighborhood upgraded to green HVAC, data of this study predict that at least 98 upgrades would occur in adjacent neighborhoods, more than doubling their baseline adoption rates. This spatial multiplier substantially magnifies the effects of factors affecting adoption rates. These results have important policy implications, especially in the context of new standards for neighborhood development, such as Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) or Low-Impact Development standards.