Ultimately exposed roof area prediction of bauxite deposit goaf based on macro joint damage

The ultimately exposed roof area (UERA) of goaf is crucial to the safety and economics of underground mining. The prediction models do not consider the mechanical weakness of rock mass and ignore the influence of the joint damage factor, causing a large predicted exposure area with a high roof falling risk. This work adopted joint damage factor to derive a new UERA prediction model. The relationships between the UERA (S) and the span ratio (m), the density (lambda) and the diameter of fracture (d) were analysed by the new prediction model. The results showed that the exposed area S and the span ratio m have a U-shaped curve relationship. The S decreases with the increase of m and then increases when m is beyond 2. The exposed roof area S is in an inversely proportional power-law relationship with the fracture surface density lambda, and the curvature of the S-lambda relationship curve decreases when d = 0.5 and lambda > 7, and S is close to 0. There is a negative correlation between S and the fracture surface diameter d, the curvature of the S-d curve decreases with the increase of d and lambda, and the variation rate increases first and then decreases with the increase of d; when lambda = 0.5 and d > 9, S is close to 0. The predicted values of the UERA prediction model are 119.3, 112.8, and 114.6 m(2) with different joint damage parameters, which are slightly smaller than the actual critical exposure area of a roof (S = 120 m(2)). The case study shows that the alternative prediction model is reasonable and acceptable and provides new theoretical support for the underground mining safety of sedimentary bauxite ore. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of China University of Mining & Technology.