New insights on the orbital debris collision hazard at GEO

被引：32
|
作者：
McKnight, Darren S. [1 ]
Di Pentino, Frank R. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Integr Applicat, Chantilly, VA 20151 USA
来源：
ACTA ASTRONAUTICA | 2013年 / 85卷
关键词：
Orbital debris; Collision hazard; Geosynchronous orbit;
D O I：
10.1016/j.actaastro.2012.12.006
中图分类号：
V [航空、航天];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0825 ;
摘要：
An analysis is performed of the orbital debris collision hazard to operational spacecraft at geosynchronous orbit (GEO). As part of the examination, the contribution of individual components of the population are considered and presented to provide a clearer linkage between object characteristic and resulting risk. Our examination of GEO collision risk reveals several critical new insights: (1) the current probability of collision in CEO is relatively low, yet the future is difficult to predict due to our limited ability to observe objects in CEO and the uncertainty in past and future debris-generating events in CEO; (2) the probability of collision in CEO is not uniform by longitude - it is seven times greater in regions centered about the geopotential wells; (3) the probability of a mission-terminating collision is greatly dependent upon the approximately 2200 objects in the 10 cm-1 m range observed in CEO but not yet cataloged; (4) hardware relocated to CEO "graveyard" disposal orbits pose a potential additional, but not fully understood, collision hazard to operational CEO satellites; and (5) the collision hazard throughout the course of a day or year is highly episodic (i.e. non-uniform). (C) 2012 IAA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：73 / 82
页数：10
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