Relation between single serum progesterone assay and viability of the first trimester pregnancy

This study was designed to detect the relation between serum progesterone and viability of pregnancy during the first trimester. Prospective study carried out in Al-Rashid Maternity and Ahmadi Kuwait oil company hospitals, over three years from February 2009 to February 2012. Two hundred and Sixty (260) pregnant women were hospitalized due to vaginal bleeding and/or abdominal pain during the first trimester of their pregnancies and were included in this study. Women included in this study were; sure of dates, conceived spontaneously with no history of infertility and had a positive serum pregnancy test. 2 ml blood samples were taken for women included in this study for serum progesterone assay. Women included in this study were followed by ultrasound for the viability of the pregnancy till the end of first trimester and the outcome of their pregnancy were recorded, while women with exogenous progesterone support or multiple pregnancies or suspected ectopic pregnancy or Hydatiform mole were excluded from this study. Data were collected and statistically analyzed to detect the relationship between serum progesterone level and viability of pregnancy during the first trimester. The mean age of the studied population was 32.7 +/- 5.1 years, the mean gestational age at progesterone assay was 9.7 +/- 0.5 week and by the end of the first trimester, women included in this study were classified according to the viability of their pregnancies into; viable pregnancy group 178 (68.5%) cases and non-viable pregnancy group (ended by miscarriage) 82 (31.5%) cases. The mean serum progesterone of the studied population was significantly high in viable pregnancy group (46.5 +/- 7.4 ng/ml) compared to non-viable pregnancy group (9.9 +/- 4.8 ng/ml), (p <0.05). In this study; 6.7% of viable pregnancies had serum progesterone level <10 ng/ ml, while 20.7% of non-viable pregnancies had serum progesterone level >10 ng/ml, the serum progesterone at cut off level 10 ng/ml was 79.3% sensitive to diagnose non-viable pregnancy and was 93.3% specific to diagnose viable pregnancy. Also, in this study; 1.1% of viable pregnancies had serum progesterone level <20 ng/ ml, while 4.8% of non-viable pregnancies had serum progesterone level >20 ng/ml, the serum progesterone at cut off level 20 ng/ml was 95.1% sensitive to diagnose non-viable pregnancy and was 98.9% specific to diagnose viable pregnancy. Serum progesterone is a reliable marker for early pregnancy failure and single assay of its serum level can differentiate between viable and non-viable pregnancies.